Mobile App Insights · Abraham Yousef · January 2025
Is It Tick Tock Boom for TikTok?
Tick Tock? If the clock really does strike midnight for TikTok in the US on January 19, we expect there to be seismic shifts in consumer engagement, in-app revenue and digital advertising spend. Based on Sensor Tower data, the most likely beneficiaries will be Meta and Alphabet. Instagram and YouTube could see US ad spend share jump 3ppts and 2ppts YoY, respectively, in 4Q25, while US user hours/day could soar more than 40% and 12% YoY, respectively, in the same period.
Key Takeaways:
Attack of the clones: TikTok rose to prominence due to innovation in the short form video space along with its in-app monetization strategy. Its success ushered in a new era of consumer engagement and propelled competitors to create competing short form video platforms. Roughly 41%, 28%, 27% and 9% of in-app user time spent on Instagram, Facebook, YouTube and Snapchat was on short-form video surfaces in 4Q24, respectively
ST data indicates that consumers are feeling app fatigue, as overall US hours engaged on short-form video, social media and streaming apps fell by 4% YoY in 2024. TikTok’s US hours engaged metric (calculated based on average time spent per user and DAUs) has weakened, down 12% YoY in 4Q24, compared to -1% for Instagram and +3% for YouTube
A ban would cause a shakeup in the broader digital advertising and consumer entertainment space: per ST, TikTok has an 8% share of US digital ad dollars and generates significant in-app revenue (more than $1.7bn in 2024)
Utilizing trends exhibited in India in the aftermath of TikTok’s banning, ST projects Meta will likely receive the bulk of TikTok’s share of US app engagement hours, ad spend share and IAP revenue as Instagram (32%) and Facebook (10%) are poised to inherit a combined 42% in 4Q25, with YouTube (29%), Snapchat (23%), X (5%) and Pinterest (1%) slated to likely receive the remaining share
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