MMM: Duolingo's 4Q22 Subscription Bookings Grew 44%

Key Takeaways:

• Duolingo’s 4Q22 reported subscription bookings and total bookings grew 44% and 39% YoY, respectively, while Sensor Tower bookings estimates for the Duolingo mobile app increased 49% YoY. Sensor Tower data also corroborated strong user growth trends for Duolingo as DAUs and MAUs increased 55% and 39% YoY, respectively, while Duolingo’s reported DAUs and MAUs increased 62% and 43% YoY

• During its 4Q22 earnings call Duolingo touted increasing user stickiness from the number of learners logging longer streaks (or daily consecutive uses of Duolingo) as an important revenue growth lever

  • Sensor Tower Power User Curve data indicates that the percentage of Duolingo users opening the app 15+ days/month is up 7pp YoY (28% in 4Q22 vs 21% each in 4Q20 and 4Q21)

  • In addition to more power users, churn is down: Sensor Tower Churn Analysis data indicates that MoM churn on Duolingo in Jan’23 was ~36%, down 3pps vs Jan’22 and down 6pps compared to Jan’21

• Playtika’s reported 4Q22 total revenue was down 3% YoY (3% QoQ) while ST bookings estimates for Playtika’s portfolio fell 4% YoY (3% QoQ). The slowdown was in part driven by weakness in Slotomania, the company’s second highest grossing title in 4Q22: reported revenue for the game decreased 9% YoY vs ST bookings down 7% YoY

• Playtika’s CFO announced that the company would cease the development of new games for the foreseeable future based on the current marketing environment. ST data indicates that Playtika’s Casino portfolio has underperformed the broader Casino category over the past two years, posting falling YoY net bookings growth for the past seven quarters

For more information, request the full report from reports@sensortower.com.