Super Mario Run's Massive First Day, By The Numbers

After four months of anticipation, Nintendo's first mobile game has finally arrived. Launched yesterday worldwide, Super Mario Run has become the most downloaded iOS app in 80 countries. It's also the top grossing app in 36 countries as of this writing, including the United States, Great Britain, France, Germany, and Brazil. In this post, we'll look at how this has translated into downloads, revenue, and usage so far.

Downloads Have Surpassed Pokémon GO

Last week, we forecast a first month for Super Mario Run consisting of more than 50 million downloads. According to preliminary estimates from Sensor Tower's Store Intelligence platform, the game made it about 10 percent of the way to that goal in its first 24 hours, amassing more than five million downloads worldwide. Below, you can see how that compares to 2016's mega-launches for Pokémon GO and Clash Royale.

It should be noted that Pokémon GO initially launched in only a handful of countries, compared to the 150 of Super Mario Run. We estimate that as many as 30 million iOS users opted in to receive notice of Super Mario Run's release, although our research shows that many of these notifications didn't arrive until hours after the game launched, if at all. Issues with the game not appearing as available for downloaded for many users also hampered the launch's early hours.

Already a Revenue Super Star

On the revenue front, Super Mario Run is aligning to our projection of a roughly 10 percent conversion rate from free download to paid user, grossing more than $5 million worldwide in its first 24 hours. Some countries, such as Japan where there game currently ranks No. 6 grossing, are clearly lagging behind others in terms of users monetizing, but a variety of factors are undoubtedly at play, including regional income and spending habits.

Our preliminary estimates have day one gross revenue for Super Mario Run exceeding Pokémon GO's first day by approximately 67 percent, and Clash Royale by more than 400 percent. Again, the Pokémon GO figure should be viewed in light of its limited regional availability. Still, a No. 1 grossing ranking for a $9.99 mobile game on its first day is unprecedented.

Early Usage Insights

Finally, we have some first day usage metrics for Super Mario Run compared to the two other titles from this analysis. While each game is obviously vastly different in terms of gameplay and engagement mechanics, Nintendo's mobile-optimized platformer is capturing a solid amount of users' total daily time with their devices. On average, players spent about 16 minutes in the game during its first day of release. This compares to about 22 minutes for Pokémon GO and 28 minutes for Clash Royale.

It's still early days for Nintendo's first mobile game, but the prognosis for its near-term performance is promising, and we believe that the game could still achieve the download and revenue milestones we forecast within its first 30 days. We'll be back with more on its launch soon.